The singularity is a popular topic in science fiction circles, and some science circles, too. I'm a little aghast at how Vernor, Charlie Stross, and other science fiction writers take it so seriously that it dominates the fiction they write. Vernor Vinge can't write about it directly, while Stross can't seem to write about anything else.
And the hell of it is that it gets misunderstood by readers of all sorts, or underestimated or overestimated.
First the misunderstandings. The singularity is not actually a singularity. I don't like the term. It doesn't mean what those using it often think it means. To me a singularity is something like a black hole, or the event horizon of a black hole, where properties like density or time dilation go to infinity. That's not what is meant by the term "singularity" as used by futurists with respect to technology. All it means is that there's a point in the not so distant future beyond which they can't reliable predict our technology.
Duh. That's it. The appropriate term would have been horizon.
There have been times in my life in science fiction where I've rejected the singularity because of a misunderstanding of what it is. It isn't a time when technology progresses at an infinite rate, which is silly. It's just a rate that makes it hard to predict the future, a geometric rate, which is fast but not infinitely fast. A "singularity" in this sense has always existed and always will exist. Verne and Wells could still write far-future science fiction and write important books. Apparently not Vinge, who writes fantastic brilliant stuff, but is hobbled by knowing his own limitations.
(Note: please don't confuse Jules Verne and Vernor Vinge!)
Verne wrote a book that was never published that predicted fax machines a century before their time. It was rejected as being too far fetched.
On the other hand, I see a lot of novels in which the far future really isn't much different from the present, without a reliable excuse (and I think there are many!) other than lack of imagination. I myself might be guilty on that count.
The internet, cell phones, the flow of information...no one a century ago could imagine this. In a few seconds, anyone reading this can answer the most obscure of questions. Or order tickets to fly halfway across the world, tomorrow. Or self-diagnose that weird inflamed lump under your armpit. Or just share an insight with thousands.
The future will be faster and stranger. No doubt.
But the thing I doubt the singularity enthusiasts appreciate is how long it really takes the bulk of the world to adopt something. We can feed everyone on the planet, easily, yet starvation happens. That's not a failure of technology. That's a failure of will, and politics. We could be doing research on stem cells in the U.S., but religious superstitions trump science there. If we start to approach human-level or super-human-level artificial intelligence, the core of Vinge's pro-singularity argument, what are the chances that the research will remain unfettered? After all, if God created man in his image, should we be allowed in turn to create beings in our own? There are many who will say no.
And there are many who will say yes, and there will be places where it will be possible even if forbidden in the US and other countries, so it will happen. But how fast? How different? How pervasive? How unforeseeable?
Just because no one knows for sure doesn't mean it can't be imagined by someone. I mean, magic isn't logical, foreseeable, but people happily write fantasy stories and others read them. Fiction is a place to explore the nature of humanity from every perspective. As much as I'm a stickler for scientific integrity, it's not a place to be a futurist perfectionist.
In the end, I am a great believer in technology and its power to do good in our lives. On the whole, it has improved our lot by orders of magnitude. Anyone who says otherwise is myopic and clouded by a lack of death and suffering that our ancestors regularly faced. I believe future changes overall will be good for us, if they don't destroy us, like everything else.
I plan to enjoy my ride.